Summer Surge of 2023 Looks Like This
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. The Biden Administration earlier this year declared the end of the USA COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) as of May 11, 2023. After more than three years of massive lifestyle, healthcare, and societal changes caused by this virus, we are not free from its influence.
The CDC continues to use a variety of surveillance tools to monitor the level of COVID-19. According to the CDC’s county level nomenclature, all the counties in the Greater Cincinnati tristate area remain at the LOW designation. The cautionary news is that COVID-19 hospitalizations in Hamilton, Butler, Warren, and Clermont counties are all up 200% during this last reporting period. Hospitalizations are up 12.1% across the nation, thus one data point in a summer surge. Secondly, there are reports of significant increases in cases in multiple extended care facilities around the country. A third data point indicative of a summer surge is in the wastewater surveillance information.
In September 2020, the CDC initiated the National Wastewater Surveillance System as an additional tool to monitor the community level of COVID-19. By collecting and analyzing wastewater (sewage) of communities for the RNA of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, early indications of changing COVID-19 virus trends can be obtained. This community-based evaluation is even more valuable since the case numbers determined by testing are vastly underestimated due to the preponderance of unreported home testing. Not to mention that many jurisdictions stopped reporting cases when the PHE ended in May. Two different wastewater monitoring systems across the US are reporting upticks. Although the levels are not as high as previous summers, they have been increasing over the last several weeks.
There are factors which help to explain the summer surge. Over the last four summers the US has experienced spikes. These might possibly be attributed to the inherent cyclical behavior of the virus. This summer’s surge may be fueled by the dramatic increases in travel by air, train, and bus. Another factor may be that July 2023 was one of the hottest months on record. The severe heat drives people indoors, thus closer together, allowing for easier virus transmission.
Our country’s mindset has seemingly moved from Covid fatigue to “Covid amnesia.” Evidence of this is in the rather abysmal 17% of the US population having received the bivalent booster which has been available since September 2022. This compares to the 81.4% of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose and, a still paltry, 69.5% who have completed the primary vaccination series. Our amnesia is apparent by the scarcity of masks and the abundance of face-to-face conversations in cramped lines in airports, conventions, grocery stores, etc. Some by citizens who are knowingly sick! Our post-pandemic behavior needs to be tempered by the memory of the deaths, sickness, hospitalizations, and the financial, educational, social, and societal upheavals caused by this virus.
Let us be reminded of measures which protect each of us and our communities. Most importantly, be sure that you are up to date with your vaccination and booster. A new bivalent booster from Pfizer is projected to be authorized by the end of August 2023. Secondly, it is wise to have a quality mask, N95 or KN95, readily available in case your environment becomes overly crowded, poorly ventilated, or your personal space is invaded by someone who is sick and should actually be at home. Third, if you are symptomatic, STAY HOME, mask if others are in the home, and test. If you test positive, then isolate yourself at home for five days. If you test positive and are age 50 years or older, or if you have a chronic disease, contact your primary care physician to see if Paxlovid is appropriate for you. Note that it must be started within five days of the onset of your symptoms. After your five days of isolation, you should still stay masked for another five days when around others and still avoid crowds. You can unmask after the total of ten days as long as you are not symptomatic. You can unmask early during that second five-day period if you have consecutive negative tests 48 hrs. apart.
Stay home if you are sick!
